4. A similar problem

The following question from the 2022 paper shows something similar

(a) What is the key feature of an inductive argument?
(b) Read the following argument:

‘I have a mouse in my house. It has been proven that mice bring an increased risk of fire. Therefore, my house now is at an increased risk of fire.’

Is this argument inductive or deductive?
Give one reason for your answer.

***Chat GPT says***

(a) The key feature of an inductive argument is that it involves reasoning from specific instances or examples to a general conclusion. In other words, an inductive argument seeks to provide evidence or support for a conclusion that is probable or likely based on the available evidence, rather than certain or logically necessary.

(b) The argument presented is an inductive argument. The reason for this is that the conclusion that "my house is at an increased risk of fire" is based on a specific instance, namely the presence of a mouse in the house. The argument does not claim that the conclusion necessarily follows from the premises with logical certainty, but rather that the conclusion is probable or likely based on the available evidence about the risk associated with mice.


There are two problems here. The first part of the answer to (a) is now considered incorrect, although a pupil may still get the mark based on what is said in the second sentence.

If you ask chatGPT

Philosophers no longer define inductive arguments as arguments that reason from specific instances to a general conclusion. Explain why this is so.

the bot will happily tell you why.

The second problem is that the answer to (b) is incorrect. It isn't an inductive argument. Just because the conclusion mentions "increased risk" doesn't mean that the whole statement 'my house now is at an increased risk of fire' isn't necessarily true if the premises are true.

Interestingly, if you change question (a) so that it is asking about deductive arguments (and start a new chat so the bot isn't led astray by any earlier discussions) chatGPT gives the correct answer.

(a) What is the key feature of a deductive argument?

(b) Read the following argument:
‘I have a mouse in my house. It has been proven that mice bring an increased risk of fire. Therefore, my house now is at an increased risk of fire.’
Is this argument inductive or deductive?
Give one reason for your answer.

(a) The key feature of a deductive argument is that its conclusion necessarily follows from its premises. In other words, if the premises are true, the conclusion must also be true. Deductive reasoning is used to draw specific conclusions from general principles or rules.

(b) The argument presented is deductive. The conclusion follows necessarily from the premises, which include a general principle (mice bring an increased risk of fire) and a specific fact (there is a mouse in my house). The conclusion logically follows from the combination of these premises. Specifically, since the general principle applies to the specific situation described in the premise, it is deductively inferred that the conclusion is also true (i.e., the house is at an increased risk of fire).

In deductive arguments, the premises are meant to provide complete and conclusive support for the conclusion, whereas inductive arguments provide only probable support for their conclusions.


It is, perhaps worth considering whether pupils can be primed in the same way. The order in which questions are asked may affect the way pupils think about possible answers.